InterGen - Creating An Edge with Fundamental Modeling from PLEXOS® Insights for Traders

Nearly Three decades of UK Markets Expertise

InterGen is an independent UK energy company supporting the journey to a stable, dependable clean energy system through delivering flexible electricity systems that underpin it. A world class developer, owner, and operator of power generation facilities in the UK, InterGen assets provide power to millions of homes. The organization has close to three decades of expertise in the UK markets and has an expert trading team based in Edinburgh. 

Complex Markets Require a Fundamental View

Power markets all over Europe are becoming increasingly complicated - weather patterns are volatile, renewable integration into the stack is causing a higher propensity for negative pricing and cross border fundamentals are having an increasing effect on local markets.    

In this complex environment, both financial and physical power traders need the most robust and accurate price forecasts possible. However, due to the complications and cost of building a pan-European fundamental model, many trading organizations have typically leveraged simple statistical models.  

Fundamental models are able to capture real-world supply and demand dynamics which allow them to forecast complicated market outcomes such as deep negative pricing or capacity mechanisms like flow-based market coupling. Statistical models, however, leverage historic data to try and find relationships between highly complicated non-linear variables - a method that has proven to be unreliable in recent years. 

Operating in this dynamic market, InterGen wanted to integrate the PLEXOS® Insights for Trading fundamental model and price forecast into their existing models to give them an edge in the power markets.  

PLEXOS Insights for Traders Provides a Fundamental Model & Price Forecast

Looking to improve the team’s price forecasting with a fundamental model, InterGen turned to Energy Exemplar’s PLEXOS Insights for Traders.  PLEXOS Insights for Traders is a fully calibrated fundamental model and price forecast for Central and Western European Power.   

InterGen selected PLEXOS Insights for Traders because it provides:  

• Market leading forecast accuracy.
• Scenario analysis that delivers insight into price asymmetry, understanding price spikes events and deep negative price events.
• Full access to in-depth fundamental data, including interconnector flows, unit-level analysis and cross-border price analysis.
• Access to the delivered dataset via an API and excel format, making it easy to integrate into InterGen's in-house analytics.

PLEXOS Insights for Traders Provides Improved Forecasting for Physical Portfolios

By adopting PLEXOS Insights for Traders, InterGen’s traders and quantitative analysts have been able to integrate a fundamental model and price forecast into their internal, proprietary models without needing to hire an entire team of fundamental modelers and developers. InterGen has leveraged the holistic European fundamental model to create an edge in price forecasting and interconnector flow analysis, and ultimately helping to secure increased physical trading profits.