An Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) is a strategic blueprint that utilities use to map out their generation needs over five, ten, or even more than twenty years. This detailed plan determines the resources needed to meet projected demand, ensuring reliable service to customers while balancing economic, environmental, and regulatory considerations. IRP helps utilities align with long-term strategic goals, minimize risk, and meet customer needs in a cost-effective manner. These plans are regularly updated to reflect changing market conditions, technological advancements, and evolving state and federal regulations. IRPs are vital for utility planning and are required by regulatory bodies in 33 states. Complementing these efforts, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) recently issued Order 1920, which mandates that transmission providers develop long-term regional transmission plans for at least 20 years. This aligns with utilities' IRPs, which focus on transitioning to green power, ensuring that transmission infrastructure can meet evolving electricity needs.
The typical IRP process is rife with challenges. One major issue is the lack of standardization across different regulatory bodies, resulting in inconsistent requirements and methodologies. Varying regulatory requirements across jurisdictions becomes increasingly complex to navigate for utilities with service areas that cross state lines. This lack of uniformity impacts the accuracy of the aggregated energy goals, as diverse assumptions, modeling methods, and software can significantly influence modeling outcomes. When the states compile several utilities’ IRP plans for a total state outlook, the discrepancies between different models and assumptions can lead to inaccurate forecasts, suboptimal resource allocations and have a negative cost impact on both utilities and ratepayers.
Developing an IRP is also time-consuming and resource-intensive. It involves extensive data collection, scenario analysis, and stakeholder engagement, which can take months to complete. While tools like PLEXOS® play a crucial role in streamlining this process their complexity may lead to knowledge gaps and difficulties in finding qualified staff to operate the model. Many utilities, especially smaller ones, lack the in-house expertise and resources to manage this complex process, often forcing them to rely on expensive consultants. This results in an increased workload for utility staff who must provide data assumptions and instructions to consultants, further complicating the process. This reliance not only drives up costs but also requires significant staff time to manage the consultant relationship and ensure accurate data and assumptions are used. As a result, the current IRP process can be both inefficient and costly, hindering utilities' ability to plan effectively for future energy needs.
Many IRP studies focus narrowly on resources and demand within a specific portfolio or balancing authority, often overlooking the broader system context. This limited scope can lead to suboptimal results since balancing authorities interact with one another and their planning must be coordinated for efficiency. For example, some balancing authorities with aggressive green energy mandates experience an oversupply of energy that must be curtailed or offloaded to neighboring regions. If a neighboring area develops an IRP based only on its internal demand and supply, it misses the opportunity to incorporate low-cost import energy. Consequently, both regions may end up overbuilding their infrastructure instead of sharing capacity efficiently.
The PLEXOS Playbook for IRP addresses these challenges head-on, providing a user-centric, comprehensive solution designed to enhance the IRP process and promote standardization and best practices across the industry.
Here’s how the PLEXOS Playbook for IRP solves the key problems faced by utilities and consultants:
The PLEXOS Playbook for IRP workflow begins with a calibrated IRP study based on Energy Exemplar's latest zonal dataset. This study is benchmarked for accuracy and efficiency, providing a robust foundation for IRP analysis. Base assumptions are developed using best market practices, ensuring accurate benchmarking to a historical year in terms of capacity, generation, and market prices. It also includes future long-term capacity expansion targets, greenhouse gas emissions forecasts, and renewable energy targets. The study is equipped with candidate builds for the latest emerging technologies, adjusted for applicable tax credits that may influence build decisions. The datasets encompass current supply and demand forecasts, fuel prices, and carbon markets. A calibrated long-term capacity expansion is included in the study, serving as a strong starting point for any IRP analysis.
Below is an example of how the PLEXOS Playbook for IRP streamlines the IRP process by providing user-friendly tools and comprehensive support, making it easier for utilities to customize study assumptions, run stress tests, and analyze simulation results efficiently.
Users may customize the study assumptions with proprietary data, such as refining service territories, adding planned contracts and resources, and modifying existing resource properties like variable costs and operational settings. These updates can be effortlessly integrated into the study using the Excel Add-In data input template. Users simply input the changes in Excel, and with a single click, the adjustments are seamlessly synced to PLEXOS Cloud. The Excel-Add In menu is featured in Figure 1 below. Users can both modify the data inputs and pull simulation results into Excel with the tool.
Most IRP’s require stress tests to evaluate portfolio performance and risk under extreme conditions, such as high demand, elevated fuel prices, and increased carbon costs. The PLEXOS Playbook for IRP includes pre-configured base scenarios for these stress tests, which can be customized by clients to better reflect their specific circumstances. Additionally, clients can create new scenarios tailored to their unique requirements, ensuring a comprehensive and adaptable approach to stress testing. This flexibility allows utilities to thoroughly assess and mitigate risks, enhancing the reliability and robustness of their IRP strategies. Figure 2 below illustrates the interactive scenario selection table in PLEXOS Cloud, where users have the ability to create new models and select scenarios for inclusion in a simulation.
Simulations can be initiated directly from the Excel Add-In or via PLEXOS Cloud. Simulation results are auto-populated with BI analytics and Excel dashboards for streamlined review, eliminating the need for post-processing of simulation results. Figure 3 below showcases the automated output BI analytics dashboard for capacity additions in PLEXOS Cloud, which compares the differences in capacity built over the study horizon for a base model, high and low fuel scenarios. Figures 4 and 5 showcase automated output graphics for total system cost and greenhouse gas compliance, available in Excel. Automated dashboards included with the PLEXOS Playbook for IRP allow for analysis of capacity and generation, resource adequacy, cost, clean-energy analysis (such as renewable energy generated & emissions generated), portfolio risk, as well as annual and monthly financial tables detailing power supply costs to support budget planning and rate impact analysis. Dashboards can easily be customized to fit user needs.
The results are automatically populated into fully developed dashboards designed to meet IRP requirements, featuring standardized tables and graphics suitable for direct integration into any IRP documentation or submission. This feature significantly reduces the time required for staff to compile results.
Detailed user manuals and guides are integral components of the PLEXOS Playbook for IRP, providing comprehensive documentation to support users throughout the entire process. These resources include step-by-step guides that assist users in utilizing the data input workbook effectively, analyzing simulation results accurately, and generating detailed reports. Whether navigating data entry or interpreting complex outcomes, these manuals ensure clarity and confidence at each stage of the IRP process, empowering users to optimize their decision-making with ease and accuracy.
PLEXOS Playbook for IRP comes with detailed user manuals and guides to support users throughout the process, ensuring clarity and confidence at every stage. It is designed to significantly improve the IRP process for utilities, particularly smaller utilities that struggle with the complexities of in-house modeling and the high costs of hiring consultants. By providing a user-friendly, cost-effective, and efficient solution, the PLEXOS Playbook for IRP empowers utilities to take control of their planning processes, make informed decisions, and engage effectively with stakeholders. With its comprehensive features and focus on standardization, the PLEXOS Playbook for IRP sets a new standard for excellence in integrated resource planning.