This blog outlines the PLEXOS Eastern Interconnect (EIC) Zonal dataset and summarizes the latest enhancements and modeling capabilities. Energy Exemplar’s PLEXOS EIC Zonal V24.5 dataset allows for modeling of the entire Eastern Interconnect system from 2022 to 2054.

In addition to fundamental data elements such as transmission, demand, and generators, the dataset includes pre-configured use cases for market analyses, such as long-term capacity expansion cases with different options for planned retirement assumptions. An executed backcast demonstrates the dataset’s ability to replicate historical market results for 2022, as well as a long-term forecast to ensure reliability of the data.

The Eastern Interconnect

The Eastern Interconnect is one of the major power grids in North America covering about 38 states as well as parts of Canada. This dataset comprehensively incorporates all the latest generator data, forecasts, energy policies and power network details to enable advanced modeling.

Some of the key new features include:

• New and improved natural gas hubs assignments and forecasts- includes 38 natural gas hubs and the generator mapping is based on the natural gas pipelines that correspond to the heavily traded points on the ICE exchange. The monthly natural gas price forecasts are based on Energy Exemplar’s PLEXOS Gas North American Dataset.
• Enhanced emissions modeling with plant level emission rates and prices for CO2, SO2 and NOx enabling thorough analysis to achieve emission reduction targets. This includes specific CO2 emission rates and prices for plants participating in the RGGI program and uses the CSAPR categories for SO2 and NOx prices. This extends the capabilities to perform CO2 emission analysis which is a critical component of long-term capacity expansion studies.
• Nuclear outage projections for 20 years based on the refueling patterns of nuclear reactors, providing deterministic outages for long-term studies and analysis.
• Modeling RPS and zero carbon targets with the most recent information is critical for long-term capacity expansion studies. This allows users to navigate the complexities of energy transition planning, optimize the resource mix, expose potential risks and uncertainties, and perform cost-benefit analysis towards a carbon- neutral future.
• Uses the BI Analytics reporting and visualization tool on PLEXOS Cloud to view a single solution or compare multiple solutions within the same study, thus reducing post-processing time and effort.

Demonstrating Dataset Reliability with Backcast

To demonstrate the efficacy of the model, this dataset includes all the input data and assumptions needed for simulating and benchmarking the 2022 backcast. Newly introduced ‘passthrough’ variables provide the 2022 historical values for installed capacity, generation and hourly prices promoting transparency as shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1. PLEXOS Cloud BI Analytics

The Eastern Interconnect market experienced coal fuel scarcity in 2021 and 2022 resulting from strained supply chains, transportation difficulties and labor issues. As natural gas prices increased, the demand for coal generation skyrocketed, resulting in coal supply shortages. These challenges led to additional markups on coal delivered prices, all of which are reflected in the dataset via coal generation constraints. Energy Exemplar’s 2022 backcast model showcases generation and price sensitivity by effectively capturing these market dynamics. Figure 2 shows the monthly coal generation and Figure 3 shows the annual generation by fuel type across the Eastern Interconnect for 2022.

Figure 2 Backcast 2022 - Monthly Coal Generation (GWh)

Figure 3 Backcast 2022 - Generation by Fuel (GWh)

Renewable Energy Adoption

To accelerate the shift towards clean energy, governments are implementing supportive policies and mandates that require utilities to generate a specific percentage of their electricity from renewable sources such as wind, solar, hydro, etc. These mandates are often referred to as renewable portfolio standards (RPS). Recently, zero carbon initiatives have been introduced to complement the RPS targets and ensure a reliable energy transition. The aim is to reduce dependency on fossil fuels and achieve reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from all the sectors, including power generation, transportation, industry etc. by a specific target year.

Energy Exemplar performed a detailed analysis of state-specific RPS mandates/zero carbon targets and identified the eligible technologies to set up the RPS/zero carbon goals via the constraints class. This dataset contains 18 RPS and 9 zero carbon goals adopted by several states within the Eastern Interconnect with percentage targets and maturity year.

One market implication worth noting is that as utilities procure more renewable energy to meet the RPS goals, there may be price variations depending on the availability of renewable generation. For example, prices reduce during the day with an abundance of solar generation and increase in the evening when the demand surges. This increase in demand is typically offset by natural gas plants or batteries, which can ramp up quickly and offset any steep reductions in supply.

Emissions Modeling Capabilities

Our dataset is equipped with the latest plant specific emission rates and emission price information empowering users to perform carbon emission analyses. It also supports modeling and testing emission reduction scenarios or net-zero emission goals for a given portfolio and future projections.

Long-Term Scenarios for Capacity Expansion

Long-term capacity expansion (LTCE) analysis is increasingly gaining popularity amid the ongoing energy transition. Energy Exemplar’s simulation ready 20-year LTCE and price forecast models provide a foundation for users to help with a variety of analyses such as generation and transmission expansion plans, resource allocation, strategic planning, battery modeling, etc.

The main drivers influencing LTCE outcomes are the RPS, zero carbon goals, generator retirements, storage constraints and any other assumptions. It is crucial to have a robust platform and a starting point with the latest and most accurate information for making informed investment decisions.

The PLEXOS EIC Zonal V24.5 dataset includes four LTCE scenarios (shown in Figure 4) to provide more insight into fixed age retirements and renewable futures. The goal of these scenarios is to demonstrate the differences in the retirements and builds using fixed age assumptions and provide an initial framework for our clients to test various outlooks.

1. LTCE Base Scenario includes planned retirements reported to the EIA-860M (Energy Information Administration) and the ISO specific retirements from respective ISO websites.
2. NREL Retirements Scenario enables fixed age retirements for all the generators in the US based on the technical lifetimes reported in the 2023 NREL Annual Technology Baseline report.
3. EIA Historical Average Retirements Scenario incorporates fixed-age retirements based on actual historical operating years for each technology type within the Eastern Interconnect, determined by the in-service date as reported to the EIA.
4. Coal Phase Out Scenario phases out the generation from all coal facilities in the US by 2035. This assumption is based on ISO future outlooks and the recent G7 agreements to combat climate change, which discuss the transition away from fossil fuels and towards clean energy alternatives.

Figure 4. LTCE – Total Capacity Additions (GW)

20-Year Zonal Price Forecast

A 20-year zonal price forecast (Figure 5) is developed using the new resources determined by the PLEXOS LTCE base simulation. Figure 5 shows the annual average regional prices (2020, USD) for US regions in the Eastern Interconnect. Average annual prices remain relatively stable, ranging from $32 to $42 for the planning horizon. A decrease in the price from 2026 through 2032 is apparent in the regions with high RPS mandates and decreases further in 2040 due to ambitious zero carbon targets.

Figure 5. LTCE Annual Price Forecast (2020, USD) 

The PLEXOS EIC Zonal V24.5 dataset offers comprehensive and advanced modeling capabilities, empowering users to navigate energy transition complexities, optimize resource planning, and achieve emission reduction goals. These improvements support our clients in making informed decisions that are critical for operational success and strategic planning in the ever-evolving energy landscape.

Explore the full capabilities of the PLEXOS EIC Zonal V24.5 dataset and see how it can enhance your energy modeling strategies - visit our Simulation Ready Datasets page now for detailed information.